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Twittering Public Sentiments: A Predictive Analysis of Pre-Poll Twitter Popularity of Prime Ministerial Candidates for the Indian Elections 2014


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1 Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Coimbatore, India
     

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Twitter is a useful tool for predicting election outcomes, effectively complementing traditional opinion polling. This study undertakes a volume, sentiment and engagement analysis for predicting the popularity of Prime Ministerial candidates on Twitter as a run-up to the Indian Elections 2014. The results from a survey of 2,37,639 pre-poll tweets finds tweet volume as a significant predictor of candidate vote share, and volume and sentiments as predictors for candidate engagement levels. Higher engagement rates evolve from the horizontality of conversations about the candidate, therefore indicating a high degree of interactivity, but do not translate into a higher vote share.

Keywords

Twitter Analytics, Indian Elections 2014, Modi, Kejriwal, Rahul Gandhi, Sentiment Analysis, Twitter Engagement Rate.
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  • Twittering Public Sentiments: A Predictive Analysis of Pre-Poll Twitter Popularity of Prime Ministerial Candidates for the Indian Elections 2014

Abstract Views: 1418  |  PDF Views: 2

Authors

Kalyani Suresh
Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Coimbatore, India
Chitra Ramakrishnan
Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Coimbatore, India

Abstract


Twitter is a useful tool for predicting election outcomes, effectively complementing traditional opinion polling. This study undertakes a volume, sentiment and engagement analysis for predicting the popularity of Prime Ministerial candidates on Twitter as a run-up to the Indian Elections 2014. The results from a survey of 2,37,639 pre-poll tweets finds tweet volume as a significant predictor of candidate vote share, and volume and sentiments as predictors for candidate engagement levels. Higher engagement rates evolve from the horizontality of conversations about the candidate, therefore indicating a high degree of interactivity, but do not translate into a higher vote share.

Keywords


Twitter Analytics, Indian Elections 2014, Modi, Kejriwal, Rahul Gandhi, Sentiment Analysis, Twitter Engagement Rate.

References





DOI: https://doi.org/10.15655/mw%2F2015%2Fv6i2%2F65670