Journal of Information and Knowledge (Formerly SRELS Journal of Information Management)

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Stochastic Model for the Electronic Access of an Article


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1 ORI & MSS Library, University of Kerala, Karyavattom Campus, Trivandrum, Kerala 695581, India
     

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As a result of rapid developments in Information Technology, the world is changing from the traditional paper environment to electronic environment. However, bibliometric studies in electronic environment are rare. This is a pioneer study which forecasts the use of an electronic document .It collects thirty nine month's read statistics of an article selected from Repec database and analyze this data using modern forecasting techniques and obtains a stochastic model ARIMA (1,1,0). The present study explains how this model can be used to forecast the future reads of the article and uses the model to examine the characteristics of the read or the diffusion of knowledge/ideas of the article. The study further describes the way to determine the obsolescence (in terms of reads) of an article, with age and examines the possibility of weeding out in an electronic environment.

Keywords

Electronic Environment, Number of Reads of an Electronic Document, Forecasting Techniques, ARIMA Model, Obsolescence, Weeding out of Electronic Documents, Optimum Utilization of Web Space.
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About The Author

B. Asha
ORI & MSS Library, University of Kerala, Karyavattom Campus, Trivandrum, Kerala 695581
India


Notifications

  • Mackre-Mason (Jeffrey); etal. A report on the PEAK Experiment, http://www.dlib.org/dlib/july99/mackremason/07mackre son.html.

  • Zhang (yin). The impact of Internet-based electronic resources on formal scholarly communication in the area of Library and Information Science: A citation analysis. 24(4); July/Aug 1998; p241-254.

  • Herring (Susan Danis). Use of electronic resources in scholarly electronic journals: A citation analysis. College and Research Libraries. July 2002; p334-340.

  • Siebenberg (Tammy R), etal. Print versus Electronic Journal Use in Three Sci/Tech Disciplines: what’s Going On Here? College and Research Libraries. September 2004, p427-438.

  • Hiller (steve). “How Different are they”? A comparison by Academic Area of Library Use, Priorities, and information Needs at the University of Washington. http://www.istl.org/02-winter/larticle1.html.

  • Makridakis (Spyros); Wheelwright (Steven) and Hyndman (Rob J). Forecasting Methods and application 3rd ed. New York, John wiley & sons, 2003, p311-373.


Abstract Views: 327

PDF Views: 9




  • Stochastic Model for the Electronic Access of an Article

Abstract Views: 327  |  PDF Views: 9

Authors

B. Asha
ORI & MSS Library, University of Kerala, Karyavattom Campus, Trivandrum, Kerala 695581, India

Abstract


As a result of rapid developments in Information Technology, the world is changing from the traditional paper environment to electronic environment. However, bibliometric studies in electronic environment are rare. This is a pioneer study which forecasts the use of an electronic document .It collects thirty nine month's read statistics of an article selected from Repec database and analyze this data using modern forecasting techniques and obtains a stochastic model ARIMA (1,1,0). The present study explains how this model can be used to forecast the future reads of the article and uses the model to examine the characteristics of the read or the diffusion of knowledge/ideas of the article. The study further describes the way to determine the obsolescence (in terms of reads) of an article, with age and examines the possibility of weeding out in an electronic environment.

Keywords


Electronic Environment, Number of Reads of an Electronic Document, Forecasting Techniques, ARIMA Model, Obsolescence, Weeding out of Electronic Documents, Optimum Utilization of Web Space.

References