Business Cycle Chronology For Indian Economy: A Turning Point Analysis

Business cycle analysis is important for estimating and monitoring the fluctuations in an economy. In the present study, the classical, growth and growth rate cycles have been identified for the Indian economy using monthly Index of Industrial Production (IIP) as the reference series. The Bry-Boschan (BB) procedure has been used for dating the turning points for respective approaches for the period 1971: M1 to 2017: M10. Two classical cycles, thirteen growth cycles, and sixteen growth rate cycles were identified in IIP with an average duration of 215, 38 and 32 months respectively. The expansions are much larger than contractions in classical cycles, however, growth and growth rate cycles exhibit more or less same durations.